By Chris Block
Though it hasn’t quite been a full three years, June 15, 2015 seems like forever ago. On that night, the Blackhawks franchise stood atop the hockey world once again – for the third time in six seasons Chicago had achieved the crest of NHL supremacy. It was a franchise boasted, and widely panned of being an organization most other NHL teams strived to emulate.
What a difference three years makes. Following two strong regular seasons runs, only to be knocked out of the playoffs in the first round both years, the Blackhawks have fallen splat on their collective faces in 2017-18. With 19 games remaining – barring a major miracle – the team is set to miss the postseason for the first time since 2008 – the rookie campaign of both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane.
What went wrong? In a word – everything.
Who’s to blame? Simply put – everyone. There isn’t a player (well, Corey Crawford and maybe a couple others), coach or aspect of the front office that can escape, or who should be excused from this debacle of a season.
The questions left to answer now is whether this season can be written off as a one-off disaster and if the Hawks can re-energize and re-load for another run at the Cup next year. Or, are three consecutive seasons of disappointment too much evidence to ignore now? Do Rocky Wirtz and John McDonough make major changes or stick with the core group that has brought them three Stanley Cups and nine consecutive post seasons for one more year?
If it were me, in their shoes, my first inclination would be to keep the coaching staff and front office in place for one more run. Those three Cups should give the players and staff a little more runway than you would in, let’s say Philadelphia or Columbus. And with a better supporting cast, their stars are still game enough to make another run at it.
The trouble with that is McDonough sent Stan Bowman before the media after last spring’s first round deflation to spout all that public relations tough talk about accountability and holding themselves to a higher standard. (That said, he followed that up by firing Mike Kitchen and Ted Dent. The latter, who Bowman had provided the worst AHL roster I have ever seen the Blackhawks suit up in the minors) So, if we are to hold Bowman to his own words, we should expect big changes soon.
“I’m going to take a look at all things and I can promise you I will be better,” Bowman said in his scripted opening April 22, 2017 statement following the Predators first round sweep of the Blackhawks.
“Top to bottom, we need more. This is unacceptable to be where we are today. There will be change moving forward.”
That was in April. And now the Blackhawks have six weeks of games left and are already virtually eliminated from the postseason.
I highly doubt Joel Quenneville will be ‘fired.’
With 2 years and another $10-12 million still owed to Quenneville, he’s very unlikely to quit, retire or be forcibly removed by anyone in the front office. Any movement or removal behind the bench will likely have to involve cutting a deal with Quenneville because of all that money he’s still owed.
At this point, I do see the potential this off season of Quenneville ‘stepping down’ and transitioning into a so-called Senior Advisor role. This way Quenneville can essentially take a year or two off from coaching and still collect his money, then take another job whenever the right one comes along for him.
Still, it’s a tough move to make. There aren’t a stable of coaches out of work who would be considered an upgrade. And it’s not like there’s another coach working in the league right now who could have done much more with this seriously-flawed roster than Quenneville and his staff has.
That said, to me, Quenneville, not unlike his veteran core players, looks drained. Either that, or he’s almost completely thrown his hands up at the roster he’s been given this year. That’s no excuse, and is typically a bad look for a coach too. Glaring issues in the Hawks overall game – their approach, pace have persisted the entire back half of the season.
What is most striking to me about this Blackhawks team is its almost complete lack of resiliency. Once they’re down 2-0, you can pretty much call the game over. Heck, even when they’re up 2-0 at any point in the game you can bet they’re going to have a heck of a time holding on. That’s a complete 180 from the team the Blackhawks grew, and proved to be over the previous 8-9 seasons.
Quenneville should get some blame for that. But, so should Bowman.
There is the line of thinking out there that Bowman set himself up to be on the chopping block with his hardline season-ending press conference after getting swept by the Predators. He obviously in no way intended for it to be. That tough-talk, accountability speech was made from a position of over-confidence. The Blackhawks front office has continued to strut around like the cock of the walk even as it has underperformed.
Now, with the ticketing department scrambling amidst concerns over season ticket holder renewals, the mood has begun to change.
There is a serious question as to whether or not Bowman and certain members of the senior hockey staff should have the confidence of McDonough and Wirtz to lead this rebuild on the fly.
The Blackhawks continued struggle to identify and groom players through their own system couldn’t be swept away with the firing of former Rockford coach Ted Dent. Bowman’s trade resume is less than exciting and his best free agent acquisitions have come from the European leagues, which he almost completely relies on his Euro scouts and Barry Smith for.
When 28% of your salary cap is taken up by Toews and Kane, and 52.5% of it by five of your alleged top players there is very little room for error.
The most egregious mistake of Bowman’s tenure was a costly one. The hastily thought through decision to re-sign Bryan Bickell after the 2013 championship to a 4-year $16M contract would wind up having dramatic ramifications.
In three consecutive off seasons, the albatross that was that Bickell contract cost the Blackhawks Nick Leddy, Stephen Johns (the Hawks 1st or 2nd best prospect at the time) and Teuvo Teravainen.
Because Bickell was unmovable, Bowman was forced to deal Leddy and shed his $2.7M cap hit days before the 2014-15 season just to get cap compliant before Opening Night. After winning again in 2015, Bowman purportedly set his asking price for Sharp too high ahead of the Draft. In the end, he was left with only one seriously interested party – Dallas, but they insisted on taking Johns too – who had just come off nearly single-handedly eliminating the Stars’ AHL affiliate in the 2015 playoffs. Then, the following summer, after Bickell had gone through health issues and had essentially become a minor league player, it took throwing Teravainen into the deal to entice the Hurricanes into taking Bickell’s one remaining year off the Hawks’ books.
Three off seasons, three good young players all lost due to one horrible contract (and mis-reading the market for Sharp) that was heavily criticized from the moment it was signed. Leddy’s plus/minus rating this year on the Isles is notably horrific, but there’s little argument the Blackhawks are in much better shape today with those three players – or, having been in a situation down the line to use Leddy in a trade when the Hawks weren’t dealing from such a position of weakness.
I’ve read in places and spoken to people who express the idea that since Stan Bowman has never hired his own coach he should still be afforded that opportunity. This is just absurd.
Scotty Bowman was the principle player in getting Joel Quenneville hired. Stan was the assistant GM at the time and by that point John McDonough was already butting heads with Dale Tallon behind the scenes and eyeing Stan as his next GM. The idea was McDonough could sell on the Bowman legacy. McDonough was wise enough to acknowledge that everyone knew he didn’t know anything about hockey, but very few people would be quick to challenge a Bowman. McDonough pulled the trigger the following summer after someone infamously forgot to fax their qualifying offers to that season’s restricted free agents. Tallon took the blame for it and got fired – or moved into a phony Advisor role – even though the assistant GM in those days would handle most of the paperwork. Stan was promoted to GM and McDonough quietly created a new administrative position in the hockey ops department for someone to handle all paperwork in the future.
Stan Bowman has given Quenneville three contract extensions – in 2010, 2013 and 2016. Doing so, each time, when Quenneville still had a year to go on his existing deal.
A decision to retain or fire Bowman shouldn’t come down to sentiment, or some unwritten protocol. It should be decided solely on the faith you have in Bowman being the ultimate decider on draft picks, free agency, salary cap management and all-around talent evaluation in this rebuild ‘on the fly’ the organization is in right now.
With the right moves, a few a more young players elevating their games, a revamping of the blue line and a healthy Corey Crawford, the Hawks conceivably make another run at the Cup next year. That’s a lot that has to go right, and a couple wrong steps could put them right back where they are today a year from now.
I have no sense if Stan’s job is in jeopardy or not, and won’t pretend to. Management can have bad years just as players can and rebound the next season. Though, if we’re going by his history, you can make an argument that Bowman is not that person.
Either way, Bowman is still in charge now, and is facing some important challenges ahead of Monday’s trade deadline.
The Blackhawks are without 2nd and 4th round draft picks as of now in this June’s Entry Draft. Stockpiling additional picks between now and the draft is on the GM’s to-do list.
Bowman will likely also be looking to unload Artem Anisimov and his $4.55M cap hit. That might not be easy. Columbus is rumored to be interested but Anismov would have to waive his no-movement clause. That contract has another 3 years left on it too, though his actual salary slides from $5 million next season to $4M and then $3M in the final year of Anisimov’s contract in 2020-21. Anisimov will be 33 when it expires. Stan Bowman gave him that deal, extending the centerman’s contract another 5 years beyond the one he came from Columbus with before he ever played a game in a Hawks uniform.
Adding picks in deadline deals might be tough for Bowman as well because he doesn’t have many players that would be necessarily desirable to contending teams down the stretch.
Lance Bouma was placed on waivers on Sunday. Tommy Wingels could generate some interest for a team looking to solidify depth or a fourth liner.
Bowman will probably get a call on Patrick Sharp. If the 36-year old would be interested in waiving his no-trade clause, that’s a move we could see on Monday. While Sharp has been a semi-regular scratch of late, he has the Cup experience that entices GM’s looking to stack up at the deadline. The biggest question coming into this season was if Sharp could stay healthy, or if he was damaged goods. He’s proven he can stay healthy and his cap hit is just 800k. The main issue with Sharp is his 5.9% shooting percentage over the past two seasons.
A player to keep an eye on this summer, if not Monday is Vince Hinostroza. He could find himself in a multi-player deal between now and next season. Management made a clear choice on him in training camp. They were much higher on Alex Debrincat and sent Hinostroza back to Rockford even after Hinostroza had a strong camp. Hinostroza runs hot and cold on the ice, as well as off of it. That’s in contrast to Debrincat, who is seemingly unflappable. Couple that with the impending arrival of Dylan Sikura, who the brass is very high on at the moment, and Hinostroza could likely find himself out of the top nine again. It makes no sense to let go of Hinostroza before the Hawks knew for sure that they were going to sign Sikura. At this point that appears to be a lock, thus potentially making Hinostroza expendable.
Bowman doesn’t have a lot of other options. Brent Seabrook has been wildly inconsistent, though he hasn’t been as awful as some try to make him out to be. That said, Seabrook’s contract makes him virtually unmovable. We’ve been surprised before, but Seabrook has another 6 years left on his deal with a $6.875M annual cap hit. He’ll be 39 when it expires in 2024. No other Blackhawk is under contract currently into that 2023-24 season, to add some color to the magnitude of that deal.
Brandon Saad’s name has been tossed around. I’d be surprised if he moved. Ryan Hartman has as well. That would be ill-advised. Hartman is versatile. He can play different positions and is a solid player who will get better. He’s an RFA this summer, which is probably why he’s being talked about, but he hasn’t had the kind of season that puts him in a position to demand a huge pay increase. So, unless the return is something significant, and I don’t even know what or how that would be, it doesn’t make sense.
If its significant change the Blackhawks are looking to make, they may need to open talks for Duncan Keith. The veteran is on the back-end of his back-diving contract that has another 5 years remaining. Keith’s cap hit is a little more than $5.5M per. But his actual salary next year is only $4.5M. After that, Keith’s deal continues its free fall to $3.5M, $2.65M, $2.1M to $1.5M in its final year. If you believe Keith still has some premier level hockey left in him, he’s a heck of a bargain. Since it’s highly unlikely the Blackhawks would be open to moving Toews or Kane, it also makes Keith the only player Bowman could move and get a big package in return for. Keith also has a no-movement clause he’d have to lift to make a deal reality. Keith is a year and a half younger than Sharp, who most have written off as done. If the Hawks are ever going to move Keith, the time is now.
It’s quite the predicament Bowman, Quenneville and company find themselves in.
They may wind up deciding to go the route of minor tweaks, a healthy Corey Crawford and a hope that this nasty season was a roster-wide aberration.
Should McDonough choose that path and the Hawks follow up with a season similar to this one, a complete organization overhaul would be in store a year from now.
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ChrisBlock@TheThirdManIn.com
Twitter.com/ChrisBlock
